Trump sees 'pretty unusual shift' in approval rating

 Statistician and political analyst Nate Silver described the recent uptick in President Donald Trump’s approval rating as “pretty unusual,” noting that his numbers have climbed slightly even as the federal government remains shut down. Historically, public frustration during such periods tends to push presidential approval ratings lower.

Trump’s approval rating

Silver’s FiveThirtyEight tracker recently placed Trump’s net approval rating at -8 points, with 44 percent approving and 52 percent disapproving. That’s an improvement from October 2, the day after the shutdown began, when his net approval stood at -10 points (43 percent approving and 53 percent disapproving). In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Silver wrote: “Trump’s approval rating has actually improved a tick during the shutdown, which is pretty unusual as these things go.” He added that presidents typically see declines during shutdowns as voters grow weary of political stalemates. The modest improvement may indicate that the public isn’t assigning most of the blame to Trump this time — or that partisan polarization has become so entrenched that traditional political fallout no longer applies.

The government shutdown

The federal government recently entered its third week of shutdown, after Congress failed to agree on a funding measure to keep agencies running. The dispute centers on whether to include an extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies in the spending bill. Democrats insist that healthcare protections must remain intact, while Republicans argue that funding and policy decisions should be handled separately.

Trump’s Treasury Department

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the impasse is beginning to harm the economy. “This is getting serious. It’s starting to affect the real economy. It’s starting to affect people’s lives,” he told Fox News. The Treasury Department estimates the shutdown could cost the U.S. economy $15 billion a week, potentially shaving 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points off growth for each week it continues. Roughly 4,000 federal workers have already been laid off, while others remain unpaid as key government services remain suspended.

Previous shutdowns

According to FiveThirtyEight, previous shutdowns typically caused a noticeable drop in approval ratings — such as President Bill Clinton’s decline during the 1995-1996 standoff and the public backlash against both Congress and the White House in 2013. Yet, recent polling shows Trump’s support holding steady, suggesting an unusually resilient base amid the latest political gridlock.