Allies explore how to replace U.S. intelligence if Washington cuts Ukraine off

 At the Halifax International Security Forum, experts discussed how other countries could replace or supplement U.S. intelligence for Ukraine, the outlet wrote.

“U.S. capabilities are unique. That is absolutely clear and irreplaceable, even in a NATO context,” said James Appathurai, acting head of NATO’s DIANA defense innovation program.

Still, he noted that “commercial options now exist that were unavailable or unimaginable just a few years ago,” pointing specifically to modern satellite-based intelligence that can partially offset losses.

Appathurai cited the Finnish company ICEYE, which sells mobile reconnaissance satellites to European governments and already provides imaging data to Ukraine. But he warned that integrating such systems takes time and investment, while Ukraine’s needs are immediate. ICEYE currently operates between five and ten satellites and plans to launch 10–15 more over the next two years.

EU Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius told reporters in Halifax that Europe already fields several capable satellite systems, including the Galileo global navigation network and the Copernicus Earth-observation program. But he acknowledged that Europe still lags in some areas, pointing to SpaceX’s Starlink as an example; the European alternative, IRIS², is not expected before 2030.

For now, the EU is working to integrate satellite and other space-based assets across its member states. Despite gaps, Kubilius said Europe retains “sufficient capability” to continue supporting Ukraine.

Canada also signaled it could help compensate for reduced intelligence flows. Ottawa has previously provided RADARSAT-2 imagery used to monitor Russian movements. Canadian Chief of Defense Staff Gen. Jennie Carignan said long-range strike accuracy becomes more challenging without U.S. data, though some of the capability can be offset with drones and other assets.

U.S. military officials did not attend the forum, leaving European and NATO representatives uncertain about how real the threat to end intelligence sharing might be.

President Donald Trump has confirmed that he wants Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept the peace plan by Thanksgiving on Nov. 27. Reuters reported that Washington is threatening to halt intelligence and weapons deliveries if Kyiv refuses.

According to Axios, key elements of the plan include Ukraine relinquishing control of the remaining non-occupied parts of Donetsk Oblast, reducing the size of its armed forces, freezing the front line in Zaporizhzhya and Kherson Oblasts, lifting sanctions on Russia, establishing NATO-style security guarantees, distributing frozen Russian assets, and creating a “Peace Council.”